The GOP will continue to move away from believing in democracy

Perhaps a provocative title to this blog, but this is a prediction based on what I am observing.

First, a bit of history.  The GOP has long been moving to become increasingly oriented towards white voters who feel threatened by the growing non-white population and other perceived attacks on "their" culture.   If you don't get that, start with this Wiki article on the Southern Strategy.

The problem with this strategy is this: the demographics are changing against its long-term viability.  Over a decade ago, GOP strategists understood this well.  Their response was the REDMAP strategy.  In short, get control of legislatures by directing national money to targeted local districts.  Then, Gerrymander and use voter suppression as much as possible.  It worked.  And as it worked, the ability of the GOP to double-down on the Southern Strategy (now, no longer even thinly veiled white nationalism) without penalty only increased. Where we are today, the soul of the GOP is white nationalism, and there does not seem to be clear path for them to go back.

Which leads me to the future.   Eventually, they will no longer be able to win the popular vote in state wide elections in Texas (and Virginia, North Carolina, and many other "Red States").  However, I believe GOP strategists already know this.  What I expect to see soon is a push to return the selection of Electoral College Electors and also Senate members to the state legislatures.  Why? Because the Democrat vote is concentrated in urban areas. Consequently, the combination of Gerrymandering and a representation system that values square feet over people will allow situations like Wisconsin.
In 2018, a Democrat won every state wide election and the majority of people who voted for a WI State assembly member voted for a Democrat; nevertheless, the GOP has a near 2-1 majority in the assembly.  Similar things have happened in North Carolina.   So, you can see where this is going.

A possible next step along the way may likely be a major push to break up electoral votes from winner-take-all to split-by-district.  However, this will only happen in states where it would benefit the GOP nationally.  That is, there will be a push for this in places like MN, CA, WI, etc.  But not Texas (not yet anyway).

Whatever it looks like, I am sure of this:  The GOP will move to make our democracy less democratic.  And it will be so that white rural voters can rule from a minority position.  I am not wrong.

Making it clear what I mean

The other day, I tweeted the following:
"Don't be fooled by anyone on the right distancing themselves from Laura Ingraham. By and large (with exceptions of course) the core animus of he GOP these days is "white cultural angst". We used to call it "racism"."

A dear friend of mine, who is a Republican, took some umbrage to the tweet.

So I have decided that I would like to elaborate so that it is clear what I mean, why I believe it, and also, what I don't mean.

What I don't mean
I expect that if what I say later contradicts these assertion of what I don't mean, that my readers will call me out. Please do!

1) All Republicans are racists
2) All Trump supporters are racists
3) I hate Trump supporters
4) Trump supporters are by and large, bad people  

What do I mean and why do I believe it?

In my view, Laura Ingraham perfectly captured the key sentiment driving support for Trump among white working class Americans. She is not the first to say it nor note it. Recall, this is what she said (referring to Ocasio-Cortez): "Nevertheless, she's kind of right in a general sense, because in some parts of the country, it does seem like the America that we know and love doesn't exist anymore. Massive demographic changes have been foisted upon the American people, and they are changes that none of us ever voted for, and most of us don't like. From Virginia to California, we see stark examples of how radically, in some ways, the country has changed. Now, much of this is related to both illegal, and in some cases legal immigration that, of course, progressives love."

This is a pretty damn good explanation of why "Make America Great Again" so strongly resonates with Trump's base. It also cuts right the heart of what many call "White Cultural Angst".

Here is Pat Buchanan recently :

"Half a century ago, Houari Boumedienne, the leader of a poor but militant Algeria, allegedly proclaimed at the United Nations: 'One day, millions of men will leave the Southern Hemisphere to go to the Northern Hemisphere. And they will not go there as friends. Because they will go there to conquer it. And they will conquer it with their sons. The wombs of our women will give us victory.' This is the existential crisis of the West. Thus, Trump seeks to build a wall, turn back the intruders, and bring Vladimir Putin back into the Western camp, where Russia belongs."

Kind of the same message, no?

But is it really the "animus" of the Trump GOP? I believe it is. First, let's looks at what some researchers have found when studying his base:

This study found that the second biggest single predictor of Trump support (the first being identification with the Republican Party) among white working class  Americans is Fear of Cultural Displacement.    There are of course, lots of reasons why someone may identify as a Republican, and I would love to have understood the interaction of Fear of Culturial Displacement with Identification with the Republican Party.  But in any event, the study provides inductive support for my hypothesis.

Here is another study that supports my hypothesis as well.   Indeed, this latter study concludes that Trump support stems from the perception that the dominant groups (whites, males, and Christians) are losing their status of dominance.

And Trump plays this card, over and over again.  The issue with immigration isn't that they are "illegal",  it's that they threaten our culture and our safety.  You should fear them!  Worse, they are "breeding" and "infesting" us.  They are wrecking the culture in the UK.   Muslums and MS13 are coming to impose Sharia law and rape your daughters!  Booga!

But it's not just Trump, he just notched it up.  The GOP has been playing this card to its advantage since the 1960's.    A little history for you on something often referred to as the Nixon Southern Strategy (I admit, this is a misnomer because it didn't originate with Nixon).  Read  the Wiki article if you have time.  The gist of it is, white people in the South will switch away from the Dems and to the Reps because the Dems are aligning with black people.   Here is a real quote from a Nixon strategist from 1970:  "The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats."

Read that again.  And again.

Now, why do think Trump and  Republicans take so much phony umbrage with BLM and Black athletes who protest racial injustice?  It's not to get black votes.

And now, the GOP has new non-white villains to work with:  Hispanics and Muslims.   Ain't it great?
They are playing this game because it works.  Racism doesn't bother party strategists because it works.  Plain and simple.

The dictionary provides a definition of "animus" as I intended it:   purpose; intention; animating spirit.  

I believe the animating spirit of the GOP is now white cultural angst.  It certainly isn't any of:

• Fiscal responsibility
• Small government
• State rights and local control
• Personal morality
• Ethics in government
• Sticking up for the little guy 
• Supporting democracy around the world and standing against dictators

And I don't feel the need to explain why I consider it just a nice way to say racism. 

As for my disclaimers?  I will add the following if you think I have contradicted any of them.

I can say that the GOP is racist without saying that all Republicans are racists.   And not all racist views are conscious.  Probably most are not.   Most Trump supporters obey the law, love their children, say "hi" to their neighbors, will return a wallet if they found one.  And most probably don't consider themselves to be "racist".  
 
But if you are a Trump supporter, I implore you to this do much introspection. 

Can you honestly say that Trump and the GOP are not stoking and exploiting white cultural angst?  And if not, why are you OK with that?  

Because if you are not, but are silent on the matter because you want lower taxes and whatever else GOP rule does for you,  you are complicit.








 

If you are bothered by how "uncivil" the left has become ...

I am going to go out on a limb then and guess that you view the world through the Fox News filter.

Because, while Fox is doing all sorts of hand-wringing over SHS getting asked to leave a restaurant, or liberals not "being nice" to Alan Derschowitz ; or perhaps more saliently, some a-hole throwing a drink on a  Trump supporter at Wattaburger, it's not as if this isn't the kind of thing we have had all along.   

You have the impression that the "left" has suddenly become uncivil, unlike the right; you are in fact being fed a narrative supported mainly by anecdotes. 

I could play it the other way.  Indeed, I could suggest just the opposite based on the following "evidence"






D

But of course, I suppose we could trade videos of the other side's incivility all day, and it would miss the point.

There are always a-holes. It is too easy and intellectually lazy to observe an asshole who has views of the "other team" and conclude "... must be them". And from there feel reinforced in your own moral superiority. To be clear, there are things where the two sides are taking very different moral stances. And I have no issue calling out shitty values where and when they are exhibited (like separating families because it will be a "strong deterrent" and then holding children hostage to your legislative agenda). But that is not the same as attacking and berating someone you don't even know just because you are making assumptions about them based on their appearance (including their MAGA hat). And violence is never OK.

But, the behavior of some knuckle-heads from either side is one thing, the behavior of the LEADERSHIP is another. We have every right to expect a certain level of civility from our leaders. But, civility implies a certain level of trust between both sides. That is, things that both sides can reasonably expect from the other. And trust that they will deliver. One of those is the trust the the other side will not commit acts of violence. But there are some other things that are expected here: and these are only necessary, not sufficient.

1) That leaders should not look you in the eye and bald faced lie to you. But this is something Trump and is spokespeople do almost daily. There cannot be civil discourse if one side abandons any regard for a good faith argument. You can't tweet this one day:

HOUSE REPUBLICANS SHOULD PASS THE STRONG BUT FAIR IMMIGRATION BILL, KNOWN AS GOODLATTE II, IN THEIR AFTERNOON VOTE TODAY, EVEN THOUGH THE DEMS WON’T LET IT PASS IN THE SENATE. PASSAGE WILL SHOW THAT WE WANT STRONG BORDERS & SECURITY WHILE THE DEMS WANT OPEN BORDERS = CRIME. WIN!

and three days later this:

never pushed the Republicans in the House to vote for the Immigration Bill, either GOODLATTE 1 or 2, because it could never have gotten enough Democrats as long as there is the 60 vote threshold. I released many prior to the vote knowing we need more Republicans to win in Nov.

And then have SHS trot out and say the second tweet wasn't false. Sadly, this is pretty much "normal" with this POTUS (and I could easily come up with literally dozens of bald faced lies told by Trump and then dutifully defended by his people).

These bald faced lies are insulting to me and every other person with an IQ above 50. And this complete disregard for honesty is EXTREMELY uncivil. It's the equivalent of someone caught red handed saying, "I didn't do it". I fucking watched you! And you know I watched you. So, what the FUCK?

2) Civility would also mean that leaders would honor the political debate without resorting to grade school level name calling. "Lying Ted", "Crooked Hilary", "Little Ricky", "Pocahontas", "Crazy Bernie",etc. This is again showing nothing but contempt for civility and the concept of civil discourse.

3) Civility would imply that leaders would avoid using racist and dehumanizing terms like "Animals", "Breeding", "Infestation", etc."

My point is the Trump debased the level of civil discourse from the day he announced - "...they're sending their rapists, murders and drug dealers.... some of them, I suppose, are decent people...". So, if you support Trump, and have just discovered the need for civility (but only on the part of "the left"), get a mirror.

Say what?

I keep hearing from Trump's defenders something like, "well, the economy is going well".  As if that would justify the racism, xenophobia, daily lying, obstruction of justice, war on science, destruction of the environment, corporate cronyism, and massive debt for future generations of tax payers.  But, here is what I don't get:  the economy is more or less doing exactly what it was doing under Obama, so why are people excusing Trump because of the economy?  I didn't ever hear Fox praising the economy under Obama. Ever.

Full disclosure, I have long believed we way over credit POTUS for the economy's performance. My point here is in response to the "Trump is making the economy great" argument.

I can show you in a few graphs.

When people think about the economy,  they will often use one or more of the following:

1. The Stock Market
2. Unemployment Rate
3. Real GDP growth
4. Job creation

So, I decided to take a look at these under Bush, Obama, and Trump.

First, the S&P500.  The graph here is log of the index because with equities, it is relative change that matters.  To see this, here is the log of the S&P500 going back to 1964:



You can see the .com bubble and the crash of 2008 pretty easily.  But let's look more closely at recent history:





If it looks to you like there is a difference in what has happened so far under Trump, and what had been happening under Obama,  I don't know what you are looking at.

Next, unemployment:
 



So, yes, it "all time low" as Trump keeps tweeting. But again, it looks to me like a continuation of what was happening under Obama.

How about Real GDP growth?





Again, I see no "Trump magic", do you?

Finally, let's look at job creation:

More "Trump magic"

Of perhaps the magic is that his followers believe that the blue is better than the green?



My sources of data at Yahoo Finance, BLS and BEA.