How to articulate my anger?

I mean, after all, many on the right and self-appointed non-partisans are quick to suggest the liberals are just sore losers. As if the election is just "Jets versus Sharks" (as posed by a popular local radio host), or "Eagles vs Cowboys", or "Yankees vs Dodgers", Etc. It ain't that. I wish it were.

If it were that, then we are in good shape. Majority rules and policy follows the majority. As long as checks balances stay intact.

But the truth is much darker than this. First of all, many vulnerable people are going to be hurt. And one of the reasons I am angry is that Trump has made no bones about the fact that he intends to hurt "them". Indeed, his primary message is that the best way to make America great again is to hurt "them". And the "them" is clearly articulated also: Undocumented workers, trans people, leftists, elistists, government workers, people on SNAP,etc.

Are we really this shitty?

Second, checks and balances are already under open attack. Pay attention: recess appointments.

Anyone who voted for him either is is not paying attention, or they believe that their lives will be made better by hurting the right people and they don't mind the destruction of checks and balances as long as they don't think it will hurt them. And that is why I am angry. Because I am now left to make choice. Did my friends vote this way because they are idiots or because they are monsters?

That is the question.

Parallels to Germany

This is a bit of free form, not super-structured post. But it is my attempt to organize my thoughts around an extremely important topic. Namely, the reality that America is (and has been) on a dark path. Yes, the parallels to Germany in the 1930's are strikingly obvious to people like me. But, to the pro-Trump crowd, apparently not.  So I will lay out what I am seeing.

Scapegoating

When I was in Junior High Social Studies class, we studied WWII.  One of the things we learned about was how Hitler came to power and why he benefited from attacking the Jewish people. This is where I learned the term "scapegoat".  Using a group of people (or person) to cast blame on and rally people around the common enemy.  From that perspective, it didn't matter if the Jews were actually bad; what mattered is whether in benefited Hitler to scapegoat them.  And, for that matter, it didn't have to be Jews.  It just needed to be a convenient group that "everyone" could agree to hate.  Jews fit the bill (at the time, I did not understand nor did I know that LGBTQ people were also on Hitler's list of villains).

Nothing I have learned since has changed this basic understanding. And this is why it is so obvious to me what Trump (and the GOP more broadly) are doing when they talk about immigrants, LGBTQ people, and Muslims, etc.   The tell-tales are clear:

• Blame them for the bad things that are happening in the world
• Libel them by generalizing bad acts of some members of the group to the entire group. Lying is fine.
  
• Promise that doing something about "them" will make things better 
• Dehumanize: "They" are poisoning the blood of our country". Using the world "illegal" as a noun.
  
• Stoke fear.  "They" are dangerous
• Stoke anger: "They" destroying our way of life.  Our culture is at risk.
  
• Stoke envy: "They" are getting things they don't deserve - at our expense
• Stoke otherness: "They" are not like "us". They are culturally incompatible.
  

Libel

Specifically, one tactic that outrages me is the Libel tactic.  This is used not only by Trump, but by the GOP in general and certainly Fox News and other right wing media.  This is not really hard to see (if you look).  The GOP narrative is this:

• America is being hit by a violent crime wave
• The crime wave is driven by illegal immigrants
• For evidence, see these violent crimes committed by an illegal immigrant.

 The first two are lies.  The last is a false implication.

America is not being hit by a violent crime wave.  Violent crime went up during COVID.  This is true. But violent crime rates are now rapidly decreasing - just as one would expect given the post-COVID recovery.     

Here are two plots (from the FBI Crime data explorer (CDE)):

You can see there is a spike in homicide that corresponds with COVID (note who was POTUS in 2020).  The website only had these plots easily obtained through 2022.  But, a quick check at recent updates will show that violent crimes have been dropping significantly since 2022.   In short, violent crime has been dropping steadily and dramatically since the early 1990's.  That trend reversed under COVID, but now appears to be reverting back downwards.  

So, there was a crime wave.  And it was clearly related to COVID.  

Illegal Immigrants are fueling US Crime.

 Another lie. See for example, this study.  It shows that in Texas, illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than natural born US Citizens.

Or this study, which shows that urban crime rates do not increase with immigration.

But who needs facts when there is a good narrative to be had?  

Using instances of violent crimes committed by undocumented immigrants to implicate all undocumented immigrants is just bigotry.

Maybe you are thinking: "But what about those terrible crimes I saw in the news committed by an 'illegal'? Fox News has them all the time.  Don't we need to do something about the 'illegals'?  Don't you care about their victims?"

 Of course I do, but I see them as victims, not political fodder.   Most heinous crimes in the US are not committed by "illegals". They are committed by native born Americans. But when those crimes are committed, it's not framed as "Americans are dangerous".    Anytime you have a group of a million plus people, someone in that group (probably many someones) will do some terrible things.  Imagine the following argument:

Something needs to be done about military veterans. Every day it seems, someone is raped or murdered by one.  These stories are shocking.  Why do politicians let these dangerous people walk among us?

Your reaction of course may be something along the lines of, "You asshole, why do you hate our brave patriots who served America?"  If you can see the bigotry of this kind of argument when used against a group you favor, perhaps, with a little effort,  you see it when used against a group you despise.

 

The 9th commandment

"Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor". I suppose we can debate what this means exactly (and scholars do).  But I am naive enough to believe that it implies that telling lies about your neighbor in a fashion that harms them is included in the scope.  But given my points above, isn't this just what libeling immigrants amounts to?  Bearing false witness against thy neighbor?  If the GOP is the "Christian" party that God Himself wants to have power,  why does the 9th commandment not matter?

Concentration Camps

Oh, did I mention the plan to use the military to round up and deport millions of undocumented immigrants?  It's not like the US can just dump them into Mexico or somewhere else - so the end result is going to be internment camps.  And if you don't think he hopes to send the military into cities to override the local police and round people up, you are not paying attention.  And if there are large protests of Trump what is doing, and he invokes the insurrection act to use the military to mass arrest protestors, where do you think they are going to be sent?  

 

Hyperbolic?

Am I being hyperbolic? Perhaps, but the analogies to Germany in the 1930's are clear.  And it would be foolish for us to assume that "it can't happen here".  

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What does it look like?

Imagine you are listening to someone from Nazi Germany in 1936. And they say this: 

" I have nothing against the Jews, but Hitler makes a lot of sense otherwise. And the economy is getting better now" 

 Imagine this if you are a Jew.

In 2023, I am the parent of trans children. And I have to listen to this sort of bullshit from Republicans.

 "I don't hate trans people, but..." 

 The "but" is typically one of :

 I want low taxes and I believe in small government

 My religion compels me

I want to protect women's sports

I care about teens who think they are trans, but ... 

I believe in parental rights! 

 

Let me react to each of these from the bottom of my heart.

"I want low taxes": what I hear is "Sorry trans people, your extermination is OK if I get a better economic outcome."

"I believe in small government": What I hear is "Except when it comes to trans stuff. Then the government need to be BIG. " 

 "My religion compels me": Yeah, and your use of religion to oppress (unchallenged by the vast majority of Christians) is why I will NEVER be a Christian. 

"I want to protect women's sports ": Sure, this is credible. Since you have defended Title IX all along (NOT).  By they way, what public stands have you taken to defend trans people who aren't trying to play women's sports?    Seriously, what have you ever done to help trans people even live? 

I care about teens who think they are trans, but ...": Does it feel like compassion to you? Or is this just the lie you tell yourself? "

I believe in parental rights!": Well, except if the parent supports their kid taking hormone blockers. Then I want CPS involved!

In summary, I think anti-trans people are assholes. AND I AM RIGHT. And if you are anti-trans, fuck you. From the bottom of my loving heart.

How's your 401k?

OK, I am being sarcastic. But I recall during the Trump years that many of his defenders would fall back on that phrase in response to ciricism of Trump for racist dog whistles, lying, hyperbole, or stuff like extorting a foreign government to help himself get reelected. And Trump himself rather consistentantly (until Spring 2020 for some reason) kept bragging aboout "new highs" for the Stock market on Twitter.

So I made a couple of blog posts like this one basically arguing that the economy under Trump was nothing special. And of course, I disclaimed that President's are way over credited good or bad on what the economy does.

Fast forward to today. So, this week, we recieved the horrible news that under Biden, "only" 199K jobs were created December and the unemployment rate is 3.9%. Nevermind that in 2018, the GOP was bragging about nearly identical numbers. So, I thought, I should update my graphs. So here they are:

1. S&P500
2. The unemployment rate
3. Jobs creattion
4. GDP growth.



Stock Market Note that Trump said that the stock market would crash if Biden got elected.

Unemployment

Job Creation Remember, this is supposedly a disaster.

This is hard to see because of large values when the pandemic hit, so I made a rescaled version.

And finally,

GDP Growth (Q4 21 not reported yet).

My conclusion? If the Trump economy was "great", so was the Obama economy and so is Biden's. Alternatively, if the Biden economy is terrible, same for Trump's. I must of course repeat my disclaimer, crediting or blaming Presidents for economic numbers is really not justified by either theory or emprical evidence. But at least if people are going to spin it, they should do so consistently.

American Christianity

This is not an exhaustively long essay. It's just a few thoughts that have been percolating in me for a bit. I mentioned this to Sonja and I said that of course, I don't really get to have an opinion because I am not a Christian. She correctly pointed out that this would be like saying that ex-Muslims can't comment on Islam. Yes they can. In fact, non-Muslims can comment on Islam. And non-Christians can comment on Christianity. And in any event, I am an ex-Christian.

I was raised Catholic. I went to a Catholic College and took 3 (yes 3) semester long and required theology courses. But I am also someone who grew up in America and has been surrounded by various kinds of Christians his entire life. Evangelicals, Lutherans, Mormons. Etc. I know a bit, even if I am not a believer.

Why the disclaimer? This is why. I think the current version of Christianity widely held by White Evangelicals in America is at the very best, bad theology. But more accurately, it's a horrible perversion of the message of Jesus (to anyone who actually takes it seriously). It is also idolatry.

Here is my thesis (which should be obvious): To anyone who actually takes the religion seriously, Christianity has NOTHING to with America - much less the Republican party. Christianity doesn't care about your Red, White and Blue flag (Nor does it care about your Conferdate flag for that matter). It doesn't care about your support for Donald Trump, the Democrats, saying "Merry Christmas", or any of that. If you think that these are defining issues for Christians, you seriously do not understand the religion. You just don't. Instead, you subscribe to a bullshit theology perpetuated by mostly White Protestants that has great currency in American history; but is otherwise, provincial, self-serving, and about as far removed from the message of the Gospels as one could imagine. I mean you my Christian friends. If you mix up religion and your love of the GOP, guns, and flag-waving, I am directing this at you: You don't understand your own religion. You have perverted it.

End of rant.

Afternote: Of course, "Christians are as Christians do". I get that. If American Christianity is a perversion of the "origninal message", so are most religions. But who am I to say definitively what the "original message" is? So, I could adopt the understanding that American Christianity is in fact, "Christianity" (or some version of it). It's whatever American Christians make it out to be. Fine. In that case, I simply reject the religion as being morally repugnant. Enough said.

Seems like the right time to update this

I made a post nearly a year ago basically arguing that nothing really new has been happening economically since Trump took office. Suffice to say that since many seem to falling into the trap of "good economy = good POTUS" (oh, never mind the daily lying, the racist dog-whistles, the contempt for rule of law, etc), I thought this update would be helpful for non-members of Cult45 but who are nevertheless confused about how awesome Trump must be because of the "economy".   Ask yourselves, "Did I feel the same way about Obama?"


But, with refreshed numbers, here are the graphs of

1) S&P500
2) Unemployment
3) Job Creation
4) GDP growth

 So, without further ado.


S&P500







Unemployment





Job Creation








GDP Growth